Dubai's demise

Three things prompted this post, a conversation and two experiences.

The conversation was a visiting UK businessman saying the other evening that we in Dubai are unaware of the bad situation we're in. We're not exposed to the truth as presented by the press in the UK so we don't realise that the city's economy has collapsed.

Firstly, we are of course fully aware of what the world's media says - we have access to it on the internet.

Secondly, while there's been a dramatic slowdow it's not the picture conjoured up by sections of the British press. You know the stories, tens of thousands of expats fleeing, schools emptying, a ghost town being reclaimed by the desert.

The two experiences were yesterday evening's peak time which gave us traffic gridlock on Sheikh Zayed Road, on Al Sufouh Road, in Knowledge Village.

Then walking the length of Dubai Marina I was struck by the huge amount of construction still going on. There's the constant noise of generators, machinery, hammering, shouting along the full length of the Marina.

An awful lot of companies are still doing an awful lot of business.

They jumped the gun with the obituaries.

Dubai's future clouded in debt?

Dubai is on a spending spree, and financial analysts are starting to wonder about the amount of debt the city-state is racking up.

Its oil production is dwindling, and its debt load is four times the average among other Persian Gulf states. Credit-rating companies are asking for more information to determine how sound the government really is.

"From published documents, it is difficult to get a picture of the complete financial situation," said Standard & Poor's analyst Farouk Soussa. "The transparency isn't good."

One of seven emirates making up the United Arab Emirates, Dubai, like other Middle East governments, has been on a deal-making binge. Companies owned or backed by the government have signed agreements or made plays for billions of dollars in assets this year, including stakes in American and European stock exchanges, a Las Vegas casino operator and, most recently, a chunk of Sony Corp. Part of Dubai's deal-making is financed by debt.

At the same time, other Dubai entities have launched expansion plans relying on public borrowing. Nakheel, a government-controlled company building a giant, palm-tree-shaped island development, placed $750 million in bonds this month to finance its plans. Government-owned Jebel Ali Free Zone recently listed 7.5 billion dirham ($2 billion) of bonds.
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Dubai also has taken a more-complex approach to investing overseas. Most other deal-making countries have used massive investment authorities to pursue their deals. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, for instance, bought a $7.5 billion stake in Citigroup Inc. last month. In contrast, Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, has entrusted a cadre of lieutenants to run his own and his government's business interests. They often compete with one another and hunt for deals independently, but they all ultimately answer to Sheik Mohammed.

The government association has helped a handful of Dubai corporate entities get high credit ratings. The assumption is that Sheikh Mohammed or his government will come to the rescue in a pinch. And if Dubai gets overextended, analysts expect the emirate's much-richer cousins in Abu Dhabi will lend a hand. Abu Dhabi is the capital of the U.A.E., and its ruler is the country's president. Sheikh Mohammed is prime minister.
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As its oil supplies dwindle, Dubai has diversified its economy into financial services, tourism and real-estate development, among other pursuits. Those revenue streams and their underlying assets are difficult to pin down without access to government books.

Intriguing. Emphasis added. If it is true that Abu Dhabi will step in in the event of insolvency we have the makings of an overinvestment problem like that which fueled the real estate crisis in the US in the eighties.

In a graphic accompanying the article Abu Dhabi's sovereign rating is given as AA/stable/A-1+. Abu Dhabi's debt as a percentage of GDP is 2.9%. Dubai's sovereign is "not available." Its debt as a percentage of GDP is 41.8%.

Jumeirah Village Circle

a self-contained community of over 6,000 villas and townhouses, jumeirah village is a 100% freehold residential developmentamidst landscaped boulevards & gardens, delivering unique lifestyle concepts to incumbents. jumeirah village is demarcated into three sectors that are located on the emirates road, near the jumeirah islands in dubai.

the development comprises a series of villages linked to one another by open landscaped areas and canals. jumeirah village offers 2,883 two to four bedroom villas with balconies and 3,184 one or two bedroom spacious townhouses with a multitude of ultramodern leisure and home accessories. when complete, these lovely residential spaces will be a striking blend of arabian and mediterraneanarchitectural styles and themes. they will feature distinctive red-tiled roofs, arches, carved doors, ornamental spiral columns, tiled floors & walls imbibing the very best of traditional middle eastern motifs and designs.

jumeirah village freehold residential project has the following themed areas:

• gateway village
• canal village
• paradise village (serenity village)
• marina village
• wadi village
• lake village
• waterscape village
• garden village

jumeirah village is built around gateway village that features extensive retail and leisure amenities. canal village has as its centrepiece a waterfront theme with scenic views. on the other hand, paradise and marina villages provide plenty of green open spaces and maritime activities for residents including provision of berthing space for small boats.

also part of jumeirah village are two international schools, town and country clubs, community centre, jogging and cycling trails, community sports and leisure amenities (football and cricket pitch, tennis courts, croquet lawn and swimming pools), medical facilities, veterinary clinics with 24x7 security. the development is expected to be complete by 2008.

this community project is being developed by the dubai-based master builder nakheel and will be released in phases starting from the fourth quarter of 2008.

the village has a centrally located park designed to attract residents and visitors alike. the park also has a sloping hill with the iconic sunrise viewing pavilion. in addition, it has a native botanical garden and an amphitheatre that connects it to the souq.

3 wadi walks stretch from the central park; lined with indigenous plant species they are ideal play areas for children and also for walking & biking. in addition to these lanes, there are 3 oasis promenades which are formal gardens with loads of greenery and game areas.

the various sectors are connected by a network of waterways or rivulets. numerous smaller parks are scattered across the development with some overlooking the streets and others on more expansive plots with play areas and water features.

Dubai Festival City

on completion, dubai festival city will accomodate 50,000 residents in 20,000 homes, from large luxury townhouses to spectacular high rise apartments; offering a range of livestyles for families, singles and working professionals.

the landmark 2.8 million square foot urban retail resort combining festival waterfront centre and festival power centre forms the epicentre of dubai festival city and is one of the uae’s most exciting retail, dining and leisure destinations.

when complete, the retail resort will have 600 shops, including 25 flagship and anchor shops – the largest collective number in the middle east – as well as many new-to-market specialty boutiques and international brands. there will be over 100 international restaurants, bistros and cafés throughout the resort including 40 al fresco dining venues along the water.

dubai festival city has been designed to provide a business matrix that offers unrivalled convenience.

3 million square foot of office space will be available in a range of architechtual styles from waterfront boutique offices to high rise executive suites. conveniently located just 2km from dubai international airport with direct access from the new 12 lane garhoud bridge, new 13 lane business bay crossing, state-of-the-art facilities with landscaped gardens & rooftops overlooking the creek, dubai festival city business parks are set to become one of the most prestigious commercial addresses in dubai. dubai festival city offers something for everyone with a wealth of leisure activities to fulfill all desires. al fresco dining and waterfront cafes, a cinema complex, bowling city, the only round marina in dubai & a championship golf course make dubai festival city the world class waterfront lifestyle resort that it is. dubai festival city’s marsa auto gallery features a curved boulevard of contemporary, architecturally striking showrooms for each of the prestigious automotive brands – toyota, lexus, honda, volvo, jeep, chrysler and dodge – in a beautifully landscaped setting that is easy to access with ample parking and a short drive from the many delights of festival waterfront centre.

Dubai Waterfront

dubai waterfront is a stunning new development comprised of canals and islands containing luxury hotels and homes. its 70 kilometer (42 miles) arabian canal runs through the desert, while its arc shaped man-made islands produce a shelter around the palm jebel ali. the harbour provides sea access for trade and entertainment, while its surroundings are divided into a series of commercial, residential, resort and amenity areas.

dubai waterfront will extend dubai coastal line by 820 kilometers (492 miles), which is 12 times the current length of dubai's coastline, and will cover an area of over 81 million squared meters (266 million squared feet). it is intended to be the world's largest beachfront development and the largest man-made development. it will be larger than manhattan or beirut and is being built to be dubai's premium luxury district. the development will feature over 100 different waterfront developments and over 150 planned communities. the various key development areas of dubai waterfront can be seen the aerial map below.

the madinat al arab area will be the central area of the project and it have a 750 meter (2.46 thousand feet) skyscraper at its center,which has been named al burj (translated from arabic as "the tower").

learn more about the dubai waterfront by watching the video.

expected completion date - unknown
location - jebel ali, dubai, united arab emirates

the dubai waterfront will create a world-class destination for residents and visitors, symbolizing the phenomenal growth of dubai. the scale of the development is one that will go down in history as the world’s largest man-made development. the 70-kilometer canal cleaves through the desert while the sweeping arc of man-made islands shelters the surrounding palm jebel ali. the harbor provides sea access for trade and entertainment and surrounding the harbor is a series of zones with mixed use, commercial, residential, resort and amenity areas.

the master plan of the dubai waterfront is based on a series of ten zones designated for different purposes. the development will also boast a new city center, anchored by al burj, one of the world’s tallest skyscrapers, which is being designed to reflect the meteoric growth of dubai. the waterfront will feature exclusive luxury hotels and resorts, including an underwater hotel, hydropolis, as well as shopping centers, entertainment venues and cultural arenas.

the waterfront project will build multiple roads and waterways, five square kilometers of coral reef and an additional 850-kilometre waterfront, 12 times the length of the existing dubai coastline. the planned communities on the waterfront are expected to house up to 400,000 people.

Dubai in 2050

I’ve seen the future and it’s full of skyscraper after skyscraper. But what else would you expect the future vision of Dubai to consist of? As you can see below, some bright spark has pictured the future and lo and behold the Dubai skyline is full of extremely tall, extremely contorted designed buildings.

Dubbed ‘Rotating Tower in Motion’ building based on ‘Dynamic Architecture‘ concept by Florentine architect David Fisher is first of its kind and trend-setting. Not only be the pioneer, the Dynamic Architecture building which will constantly in motion changing its shape with each floor capable of spin, move and rotate 360 degress independent of one another, will also be able to generate electric energy enough for itself as well as for other surrounding buildings from at least 48 wind turbines that fitted between each rotating floors as well as the solar panels positioned on the roof of the building that will produce pollution-free energy from wind and the sunlight. Any acoustics issues are solved by modern design of the building and the carbon fiber special shape of the wings. And the floor only rotates at the slow speed of about 6 meters a minutes, so that guests inside probably won’t feel it.

The Rotating Tower is actually a tower with a central concrete core surrounded by 59 independently rotating levels. It will also be the first skyscraper built with industrial systems process, where 90% of the building materials will be produced and constructed as modules in an industrial factory set up in Jebel Ali. These pre-fabricated units will then be shipped to the construction site and then assembled on the central core, the only part that will be built on-site using traditional techniques to house important static amenities like elevators, staircases, plumbing and other utilities. Each floor of the tower will consist of 48 of these factory-made modules that will arrive at the job site completely finished and self-contained with electrical, plumbing as well as air-conditioning systems ready for use. The modules will then be mechanically assembled at the rate of one floor every three days.

When completed, the rotating tower skyscraper will have 68 floors and will be 313 meters (1,027 feet) high. There will be a 6-star hotel, offices and apartments of various sizes besides five villas on the top floor. Each of the villas will have designated parking on the same floor with vehicles brought up and down in special elevators. The roof of the “Penthouse” villa will also have a swimming pool, a garden and an Arabian majlis. The tower also have a retractable heliport, a platform that will extend from the shell of the building at the 64th floor at the moment of landing, thus maintaining the dynamic aesthetic architecture of the tower.

If you can’t visualize how the tower can have endless shapes by dynamically rotating floors to adapts to its surroundings but also to the tenant’s needs and the tenant’s caprices, the following video may help you.

Not futuristic and advanced enough? How about “Rotating City” urban concept, which will be built anytime soon on an island in Abu Dhabi. The Rotating City, also by High Rise RE, is a city project where every building rotates and faces different environments according to the owner’s wishes. At 10 million square feet, this city definitely has the closer look to Spaceport in Star Wars. The city will consists of 20 rotating building 300 revolving, floating and flying villas on the water, also able to rotate at wish. Inside the city there are also 5-star hotel tower with 300 rooms, 4-star hotel tower with 350 rooms and Attraction Park with an animation box, magic carpet, river adventure, conference room and wedding room.

Future International City

the international city, dubai – lending dubai the cosmopolitan look! destined to become the business and cultural hub of the middle east and surrounding regions, the international city is a unique 800 hectare development that combines an exotic mix of commercial, residential, retail and tourism elements from different parts of the world. the name is derived from its own residential district which encompasses a variety of country-specific architectural themes adding to the international essence of the project. located on the emirates road, near the dubai international airport, it is 20 minutes away from dubai international financial center and 15 minutes to dubai festival city. international city is a country themed architecture of residences, business opportunity, and tourist attractions. it will cover 800 hectares (8 million square meters) and its geometry was inspired by the intricately patterened traditional carpets of the middle east. once completed, the project will contain studio, one and two bedroom apartment units and accommodate over 60 thousand residents. international city is located in the al warsan region of dubai, which is along the dubai-hatta road and between interchange 5 and 6 of emirates road, opposite to the dubai central fruit and vegetable market. it is located 9 kilometers (5.4 miles) from the dubai international airport, which is around a 15-20 minute drive from the center of the city. it will comprise of 6 key areas, including the central district, dubai design centre, the dragon mart, the residential district, lakes district and the forbidden city. the central district the central district is spread over 21 hectares and comprises of 34 plots that will be sold to independent developers. it will act as the nerve center of international city and will be home to retailers, wholesalers and corporate offices. dubai design centre (dubai gates) dubai design center is an exclusive area for permanent and temporary exhibitions and it occupies three sides of the internet city. it will also contain two hotels with 3 to 4 hundred rooms each, to accommodate exhibitors and visitors alike. the dragon mart the dragon mart spreads across 50 hectares and is a large trade mall designed in the form of a colorful dragon, with a 1.4 kilometers (0.85 miles) long central spine. the dragon's head serves as the main entrance, which is accessible from the dubai-hatta road. with 2 thousand parking spaces, it will serve as a commercial center for more than 3 thousand chinese companies. the residential district the residential district is spread out across 300 hectares of land, featuring 2,100 studio (44.5 square meter) and one bedroom (66.5 square meter) apartments. these freehold apartments will feature unique architectural styles of italy, spain, morocco, persia, greece, china, indonesia, england, russia, thailand, and france, divided into large and medium-sized neighborhoods. the apartment units were designed to be converted into two bedroom flats and they will accomodate more than 60,000 people. lakes district & public park (the lakeside) the lakes district will comprise of 60 hectares of lush green landscape that borders a serene lake. it will contain 24-26 buildings with a total of 1375 apartments, which are either 2 and 3 bedroom duplex apartments from 150 to 170 square meters each. forbidden city forbidden city will be a replica of the biggest and best-preserved cluster of ancient buildings in china and will spread over 240 thousand square meters. it will accommodate authentic residential and retail outlets set amidst awe-inspiring gardens, museums and performance courts.